Knowledge from Glassnode reveals that the current Bitcoin crash was the most important in historical past in greenback phrases, coming in at $2.56 billion. The “corona crash” of March 2020 was the earlier largest, at $1.38 billion.
Though 13% good points yesterday introduced welcome aid, uncertainty nonetheless guidelines. The query on everybody’s thoughts is, are we nonetheless in a bull market?
Supply: @WClementeIII on Twitter.com
Sentiment Stays Uncooked
The occasions of the previous fortnight have proven that Bitcoin just isn’t resistant to FUD or, as some suspect, market manipulation. Holding all through this era has been a painful expertise for many. However the largest concern is that final Wednesday’s crash signaled the tip of the bull run.
Debate nonetheless rages as as to whether that’s the case or not. From a sentiment viewpoint, a studying of 22 on the Concern and Greed Index reveals frazzled nerves are nonetheless uncooked with excessive concern.
It is a marked enchancment over yesterday’s studying of 10. However to say the market stays cautious can be an understatement.
The Concern and Greed Index measures feelings and sentiment to signify them on a scale of 0 to 100. 0 represents excessive concern, whereas 100 reveals excessive greed.
A have a look at the Bitcoin every day chart reveals BTC is at the moment under the 200-day transferring common, which signifies that bears nonetheless have the higher hand regardless of yesterday’s aid rally. A detailed above the 200-day transferring common is required to allay fears that the bull market is over.
BTC is making an attempt to construct on yesterday’s good points and work its approach above the 200-day transferring common. However till that occurs, from a technical perspective, it’s too quickly to say with conviction whether or not the bull cycle stays intact.
Supply: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
What’s Subsequent For Bitcoin?
That hasn’t stopped a flood of analysts from giving their opinion on the matter. The Founding father of Fundstrat World Advisors, Tom Lee, mentioned volatility is the character of Bitcoin. He maintains his pre-crash value prediction of $100k by the tip of the yr.
“I believe bitcoin is hyper-volatile. That’s the character of it, however that’s what creates the reward for folks.
Once more, although bitcoin is within the penalty field now, I nonetheless suppose it might exit the yr over $100,000.”
Equally, in an interview hosted by Scott Melker, PlanB sought to reassure viewers by saying his stock-to-flow (S2F) and stock-to-flow X (S2FX) fashions counsel the bull market is undamaged.
Based on his evaluation, Bitcoin is on monitor to hit $100k per the S2F mannequin or $288k per the S2FX mannequin.
“I’m very data-driven so I don’t make that up, however I learn within the knowledge, I look to my stock-to-flow fashions, the stock-to-flow mannequin and the stock-to-flow X mannequin, and each fashions truly present we’re actually not on the finish of the cycle.
We nonetheless have some room to go till $100,000 on common or $288,000 on common if you happen to observe the stock-to-flow X mannequin.”
S2F refers to a statistical evaluation mannequin that appears on the impact of shortage on the Bitcoin value. Critics argue that shortage just isn’t the only real driver of value.